PR Desk

ASTANA, Kazakhstan, 31 July 2026

Investment inflows rise 9.6% to over USD 20 billion in H1 2026, with private capital up more than 21%, as three leading rating agencies affirm investment grade status

Global competition for capital has shifted from cheap inputs to institutional credibility, and new data indicates Kazakhstan is among the economies benefiting from that shift. Investment activity in the country grew 9.6% in the first half of 2026, exceeding the equivalent of USD 20 billion, while private investment expanded by more than 21%. Over the same period, Kazakhstan rose from 70th to 53rd place in the Safest Countries for Investors 2026 ranking, becoming the leader in Central Asia (8).

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the economy of Kazakhstan will grow by 4.6% in 2026 (1), and the World Bank expects stable growth rates to continue in subsequent years (2).

Competition for capital has become competition for trust

For most of the past two decades, investors weighed natural resources, low production costs and tax incentives. Today they increasingly evaluate the quality of state institutions, the predictability of economic policy, and the capacity of an economy to sustain growth over the long term.

The pandemic, geopolitical tension, the restructuring of global supply chains and intensified competition for technology have forced businesses to reconsider how they allocate capital. Return on investment now sits alongside the stability of the business environment, the efficiency of public administration, and the ability of an economy to absorb external shocks.

Trust has consequently become an economic category in its own right. It determines the cost of raising capital, the willingness of international companies to relocate production, the timelines for large projects, and the overall level of investment risk. States now compete less on tax breaks and labour costs, and more on institutional quality, speed of decision making, and the ability to implement long term policy consistently.

This logic is visible well beyond Central Asia. Saudi Arabia is implementing Vision 2030, India is building manufacturing clusters and a digital economy, and the United Arab Emirates is expanding international financial services and high technology industries. Resource rich economies across the board are seeking to move past commodity specialisation into processing, logistics and advanced manufacturing.

Growth is no longer coming from the extractive sector

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the GDP of Kazakhstan increased by 6.5% in 2025 compared with 2024 (3). The principal contribution came not from the traditional extractive sector but from manufacturing, transport, construction and trade.

That trend continued into 2026. GDP growth reached 4.1% over January to June (4). Construction expanded by more than 15%, with strong performance also recorded in transport, logistics and manufacturing.

The composition of new investment reflects the same pattern. The largest volumes are flowing into manufacturing, construction, transport infrastructure, agriculture, and the information and communication sector. These form the base of a production economy capable of generating higher added value and reducing exposure to external commodity conditions.

For international investors, the diversity of growth sources matters as much as the headline rate. The broader the base, the lower the dependence of public finances, exchange rates and business activity on global commodity cycles. Diversification is therefore read not only as domestic economic policy but as a measure of investment reliability.

A landlocked economy competing on three advantages

Kazakhstan was long perceived as a commodity economy. A rich resource base and consistent policy toward the extractive sector made the republic a global leader in uranium mining and one of the largest suppliers of oil and metals. The current strategy extends considerably further.

On the initiative of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, investment policy was reoriented from attracting capital in volume toward improving the quality of investment, developing processing industries, deepening localisation, and modernising the technological base of the economy.

Where Vietnam competes on export oriented manufacturing supported by maritime access and free trade agreements, and Malaysia competes on an established industrial ecosystem and high technology sector, the position of landlocked Kazakhstan rests on three factors:

• Market scale. Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia, providing access to a fast growing regional market.
• Geography. Its position between China, Russia, the Caucasus and Europe allows integration into new Eurasian transport corridors.
• Stability. Macroeconomic stability has been maintained through a period of global volatility, with investment grade status confirmed by three leading international rating agencies.

New instruments for investors and for talent

The practical expression of the revised policy is a set of support mechanisms rather than isolated preferences.

The Investment Headquarters now serves as a single platform for coordinating government agencies and removing administrative barriers. The National Digital Investment Platform supports projects across every stage of implementation. Investment agreements guarantee stability of conditions for strategic investors for terms of up to 25 years, and as of mid 2026, 57 such agreements had been concluded.

Kazakhstan is also introducing the Altyn Visa regime for investors, entrepreneurs and highly qualified specialists. Holders receive access to public and financial services on equal terms with citizens, the right to work without quotas or additional permits, duty free import of personal property, and access to the healthcare and education systems. The measure aligns with international practice in competing for expertise, technology and entrepreneurial initiative alongside financial capital.

Kazakhstan retains its status as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in Central Asia, holding the bulk of accumulated FDI in the region.

Independent assessments point the same direction

Fitch Ratings affirmed the sovereign credit rating of Kazakhstan at BBB with a stable outlook (5). S&P Global Ratings maintained the rating at BBB- with a positive outlook (6), and Moody’s maintained Baa1, also with a positive outlook (7). Convergence across the three leading agencies indicates that fundamental parameters of the economy and public finances continue to correspond to investment level.

Beyond credit ratings, the Safest Countries for Investors 2026 index assesses public administration quality, regulatory efficiency, political and currency risk, macroeconomic stability and investment protection. Kazakhstan advanced 17 places to 53rd (8).

In the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, Kazakhstan improved to 34th place at the end of 2025, up from 37th in 2023 (9). In the Global Peace Index 2025, the country rose five positions, from 61st to 56th (10), an indicator international business reads for long term project risk.

In the Sustainable Development Report 2026, prepared by the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Kazakhstan rose from 70th to 67th among 169 countries, with its overall score improving from 71.5 to 72.0. The index covers 123 indicators spanning economic development, education, healthcare, ecology, institutional quality and population wellbeing. On these results Kazakhstan outperforms several major developing economies, including Turkey, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and South Africa (11).

Rankings are not the objective in themselves. Their function is to provide independent expert assessment, reduce perceived risk, lower the cost of capital, and increase the willingness of international business to treat a country as a platform for new projects. In the current global economy, trust is a distinct economic resource, and it increasingly determines where capital moves and how fast economies grow.

Sources

1. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/countries/kaz

2. World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Economic Update. https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/europe-and-central-asia-economic-update

3. Bureau of National Statistics, Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/economy/national-accounts/publications/279571/

4. Bureau of National Statistics, Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. https://stat.gov.kz/upload/iblock/f0e/pj1zzxnk8jdgywq68jqjbvox0srq8o4j/Ж-01-М%2006%202026%20(рус).pdf

5. Fitch Ratings Inc. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/ru/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-kazakhstan-at-bbb-outlook-stable-23-06-2026

6. S&P Global Ratings. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3520981

7. Moody’s Ratings. https://www.moodys.com/

8. Safest Countries for Investors 2026, Henley Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index. https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/global-investment-risk-and-resilience-index/may-2026-update/global-risk-rankings-post-shock-re-ranking

9. IMD World Competitiveness Ranking 2025. https://www.imd.org/entity-profile/kazakhstan-wcr/

10. Global Peace Index 2025. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Global-Peace-Index-2025-web.pdf

11. UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Sustainable Development Report 2026. https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/kazakhstan/